future shift of the relative roles of precipitation and temperature in controlling annual runoff in the conterminous united states
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2017
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Abstract
This study examines the relative roles of climatic variables in altering
annual runoff in the conterminous United States (CONUS) in the 21st century,
using a monthly ecohydrological model (the Water Supply Stress Index model,
WaSSI) driven with historical records and future scenarios constructed from
20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. The
results suggest that precipitation has been the primary control of runoff
variation during the latest decades, but the role of temperature will
outweigh that of precipitation in most regions if future climate change
follows the projections of climate models instead of the historical
tendencies. Besides these two key factors, increasing air humidity is
projected to partially offset the additional evaporative demand caused by
warming and consequently enhance runoff. Overall, the projections from 20
climate models suggest a high degree of consistency on the increasing trends
in temperature, precipitation, and humidity, which will be the major climatic
driving factors accounting for 43–50, 20–24, and
16–23 % of the runoff change, respectively. Spatially, while temperature
rise is recognized as the largest contributor that suppresses runoff in most
areas, precipitation is expected to be the dominant factor driving runoff to
increase across the Pacific coast and the southwest. The combined effects of
increasing humidity and precipitation may also surpass the detrimental
effects of warming and result in a hydrologically wetter future in the east.
However, severe runoff depletion is more likely to occur in the central CONUS
as temperature effect prevails.
| Reference Key |
duan2017hydrologyfuture
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;K. Duan;G. Sun;S. G. McNulty;P. V. Caldwell;E. C. Cohen;S. Sun;H. D. Aldridge;D. Zhou;L. Zhang;Y. Zhang |
| Journal | materials research bulletin |
| Year | 2017 |
| DOI |
10.5194/hess-21-5517-2017
|
| URL | |
| Keywords |
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