assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the russian arctic
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2017
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Abstract
Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower
latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major
challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the
long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure
(dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the
frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of
the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term
forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate
the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year
runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in
extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is
validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using
observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and
coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated
under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the
period 2010–2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and
CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such
regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in
calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of
engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance
probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym.
| Reference Key |
shevnina2017hydrologyassessment
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;E. Shevnina;E. Kourzeneva;V. Kovalenko;T. Vihma |
| Journal | materials research bulletin |
| Year | 2017 |
| DOI |
10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017
|
| URL | |
| Keywords |
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