distribución geográfica del riesgo de rabia de origen silvestre y evaluación de los factores asociados con su incidencia en colombia, 1982-2010 geographic distribution of wild rabies risk and evaluation of the factors associated with its incidence in colombia, 1982-2010

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ID: 153697
2013
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Abstract
OBJETIVO: Actualizar la información sobre la distribución geográfica de los focos de rabia transmitida por quirópteros en Colombia y evaluar las condiciones bióticas y abióticas asociadas con la incidencia de esta enfermedad en el país. MÉTODOS: Estudio observacional a partir de una base de datos construida con la información de los focos de rabia silvestre detectados entre 1982 y 2010 y la población bovina de cada municipio. Se clasificaron los municipios según el riesgo de transmisión de la enfermedad y se realizó una caracterización ambiental de 15 variables. Se elaboró un modelo de máxima entropía para predecir las zonas con condiciones apropiadas para la presencia del vector Desmodus rotundus infectado por el virus y evaluar la importancia de las variables empleadas. RESULTADOS: Se presentaron 2 330 focos en 359 (31,8%) de los 1 128 municipios del país; 144 municipios se clasificaron como de alto riesgo. Montería, Valledupar, Riohacha, Aguachica, Unguía, Acandí, Río de Oro, Tibú, Sahagún y San Onofre concentraron las mayores tasas de incidencia. Los focos de rabia se presentaron a lo largo de todo el año, aunque en los meses secos (de enero a abril) se observó una mayor frecuencia (correlación lineal [r] = 0,64). La temperatura y las precipitaciones son las variables que más robustez aportaron al modelo de predicción. CONCLUSIONES: Se recomienda aplicar medidas de control y prevención en los municipios con alto riesgo. Los mejores meses para realizar jornadas de vacunación son junio, noviembre y diciembre. En futuros análisis se deben incluir variables de interacción biótica para mejorar la capacidad predictiva del modelo.
OBJECTIVE: To update the information on the geographic distribution of bat-transmitted rabies foci in Colombia and evaluate the biotic and abiotic conditions associated with the incidence of this disease in the country. METHODS: Observational study of a database containing information on the wild rabies foci identified between 1982 and 2010 and the cattle population in each municipality. The municipalities were classified according to the disease's risk of transmission, and an environmental characterization of 15 variables was carried out. A maximum entropy model was developed to predict which areas had conditions appropriate for the presence of the Desmodus rotundus vector infected by the virus and to evaluate the importance of the variables employed. RESULTS: There were 2 330 foci in 359 (31.8%) of the country's 1 128 municipalities; 144 municipalities were classified as high risk. The highest incidence rates were found in Montería, Valledupar, Riohacha, Aguachica, Unguía, Acandí, Río de Oro, Tibú, Sahagún, and San Onofre. Rabies foci were found year-round but were more frequent (linear correlation [r] = 0.64) during the dry months (January to April). Temperature and precipitation were the variables contributing the greatest robustness to the prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention and control measures should be implemented in high-risk municipalities. The best months for conducting vaccination campaigns are June, November, and December. In future analyses, biotic interaction variables should be included to improve the predictive capacity of the model.
Reference Key
brito-hoyos2013revistadistribucin Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;Diana Marcela Brito-Hoyos;Edilberto Brito Sierra;Rafael Villalobos Álvarez
Journal communications on pure and applied analysis
Year 2013
DOI
DOI not found
URL
http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1020-49892013000100002
Keywords
colombia rabies tropical medicinepublic aspects of medicine colombiamedicinearctic medicine disease vectors

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