a general framework for understanding the response of the water cycle to global warming over land and ocean

Clicks: 249
ID: 152808
2014
Free PDF
Article Quality & Performance Metrics
Overall Quality
Not rated
Combines reader engagement with the AI quality analysis. This article has not been analysed, so there is no overall score — reader engagement is measured and shown alongside.
AI Quality Assessment
Not analyzed
Readership in this journal
Steady

Ranked #28 of 303 articles by views in materials research bulletin

Most read Least read

Bar heights use a square-root scale. Only the 120 most-read articles are drawn; the journal has 303 in total.

Mint this article as an NFT
Not yet minted

Create a permanent, verifiable on-chain record of this article on the Scimatic Network. The NFT is held in your Journament account, and you can withdraw it to your own wallet at any time.

5 SUSD one-off · no wallet required
Sign in to mint
Abstract
Climate models project increases in globally averaged atmospheric specific humidity that are close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) value of around 7% K−1 whilst projections for mean annual global precipitation (P) and evaporation (E) are somewhat muted at around 2% K−1. Such global projections are useful summaries but do not provide guidance at local (grid box) scales where impacts occur. To bridge that gap in spatial scale, previous research has shown that the "wet get wetter and dry get drier" relation, Δ(P − E) ∝ P − E, follows CC scaling when the projected changes are averaged over latitudinal zones. Much of the research on projected climate impacts has been based on an implicit assumption that this CC relation also holds at local (grid box) scales but this has not previously been examined. In this paper we find that the simple latitudinal average CC scaling relation does not hold at local (grid box) scales over either ocean or land. This means that in terms of P − E, the climate models do not project that the "wet get wetter and dry get drier" at the local scales that are relevant for agricultural, ecological and hydrologic impacts. In an attempt to develop a simple framework for local-scale analysis we found that the climate model output shows a remarkably close relation to the long-standing Budyko framework of catchment hydrology. We subsequently use the Budyko curve and find that the local-scale changes in P − E projected by climate models are dominated by changes in P while the changes in net irradiance at the surface due to greenhouse forcing are small and only play a minor role in changing the mean annual P − E in the climate model projections. To further understand the apparently small changes in net irradiance we also examine projections of key surface energy balance terms. In terms of global averages, we find that the climate model projections are dominated by changes in only three terms of the surface energy balance: (1) an increase in the incoming long-wave irradiance, and the respective responses (2) in outgoing long-wave irradiance and (3) in the evaporative flux, with the latter change being much smaller than the former two terms and mostly restricted to the oceans. The small fraction of the realised surface forcing that is partitioned into E explains why the hydrologic sensitivity (2% K−1) is so much smaller than CC scaling (7% K−1). Much public and scientific perception about changes in the water cycle has been based on the notion that temperature enhances E. That notion is partly true but has proved an unfortunate starting point because it has led to misleading conclusions about the impacts of climate change on the water cycle. A better general understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on water availability that are projected by climate models will surely be gained by starting with the notion that the greater the enhancement of E, the less the surface temperature increase (and vice versa). That latter notion is based on the conservation of energy and is an underlying basis of climate model projections.
Reference Key
roderick2014hydrologya Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;M. L. Roderick;F. Sun;W. H. Lim;G. D. Farquhar
Journal materials research bulletin
Year 2014
DOI
10.5194/hess-18-1575-2014
URL
http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/1575/2014/hess-18-1575-2014.pdf
Keywords
anthropology recreationenvironmental sciences sanitary engineeringgeography technologyenvironmental technology

Citations

No citations found. To add a citation, contact the admin at info@scimatic.org

Comments

No comments yet. Be the first to comment on this article.