previsões meteorológicas do modelo eta para subsidiar o uso de modelos de previsão agrícola no centro-sul do brasil eta model forecasts as input to crop models for the mid-southern region of brazil

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ID: 146302
2009
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Abstract
Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar a precipitação pluvial e as temperaturas máximas e mínimas previstas pelo Modelo Eta para até 120 dias de previsão em 24 localidades distribuídas na região Centro-Sul do Brasil. A avaliação se baseia na comparação de séries históricas de chuva e temperaturas de 1997 a 2002, com as previsões de 30, 60 e 120 dias de antecedência do Modelo Eta para as 24 localidades. Foram utilizados valores de média, mediana e desvio padrão nesta avaliação. Os resultados indicam que estas previsões geralmente subestimam as chuvas e a amplitude térmica nestas localidades. Os menores erros de precipitação pluvial se localizam mais destacadamente em Itumbiara e Rio Verde, enquanto que os maiores, em Porangatu e Manduri. Por outro lado, os menores erros de temperatura máxima se localizam destacadamente em Brasília, Manduri e Piracicaba, enquanto que os maiores ocorrem em Barreiras e Porangatu. Apesar de o modelo apresentar erros sistemáticos nas previsões de temperaturas, estes erros podem ser removidos para que os valores corrigidos possam ser introduzidos nos modelos de culturas.
The objective of this study was to evaluate the 120-day precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature forecasts by Eta Model over 24 locations around the Mid-Southern of Brazil. The evaluation was based on comparing observed time series of precipitation and temperatures from 1997 to 2002 to 30, 60 and 120-day forecasts of Eta Model over these 24 locations. Mean, median and standard deviation were used in the evaluation. The results show that these forecasts generally underestimate rain and temperature range. The smallest precipitation errors occurred in Itumbiara and Rio Verde, whereas the largest errors occurred in Porangatu and Manduri. The smallest maximum temperature errors occurred in Brasília, Manduri and Piracicaba whereas the largest errors in Barreiras and Porangatu. Despite the systematic errors exhibited by the precipitation and temperature forecasts, these errors can be removed and the corrected values input into the crop models.
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Authors Pedro Abel Vieira Junior, Durval Dourado Neto, Sin Chan Chou, Thomas Newton Martin
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Journal Trials
Year 2009
DOI
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http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-84782009000200015
Keywords
applications to crop modelsagricultureagriculture (general)

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