do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?
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ID: 144676
2013
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Abstract
The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.
| Reference Key |
ramos2013hydrologydo
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;M. H. Ramos;S. J. van Andel;F. Pappenberger |
| Journal | materials research bulletin |
| Year | 2013 |
| DOI |
10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013
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| URL | |
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