aircraft operation depending upon the uncertainty of maintenance alternatives

The paper considers the theoretical explanation and construction of some mathematical models of the aircraft operational process in reference to maintenance organizations preferred by aviation experts and aircraft operators. The uncertainty of such operational multi-alternativeness is evaluated on the basis of subjective entropy of preferences demonstrated by aircraft operators and aviation experts. When applying the maximum principle of subjective entropy, the optimal distributions of the preferences are obtained. The proposed concept allows finding the optimal distribution of the aircraft fleet according to the available maintenance alternatives. To optimize the above mentioned distribution, one may take into account the possible development and improvement of maintenance organizations and so called “shadow” components. The paper also discusses a significant approach that helps to evaluate the effectiveness of organizations functioning in the area of aviation. This evaluation can be carried out at both global and continental levels as well as state, operator, and airline levels. The respective modeling has been performed and is illustrated with diagrams.