methane fluxes in the high northern latitudes for 2005–2013 estimated using a bayesian atmospheric inversion
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2017
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Abstract
We present methane (CH4) flux estimates for 2005 to 2013 from a
Bayesian inversion focusing on the high northern latitudes (north of
50° N). Our inversion is based on atmospheric transport modelled
by the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART and CH4
observations from 17 in situ and five discrete flask-sampling sites distributed
over northern North America and Eurasia. CH4 fluxes are determined at
monthly temporal resolution and on a variable grid with maximum resolution
of 1° × 1°. Our inversion finds a CH4
source from the high northern latitudes of 82 to 84 Tg yr−1,
constituting ∼ 15 % of the global total, compared to 64 to
68 Tg yr−1 (∼ 12 %) in the prior estimates. For northern
North America, we estimate a mean source of 16.6 to 17.9 Tg yr−1, which
is dominated by fluxes in the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) and western Canada,
specifically the province of Alberta. Our estimate for the HBL, of 2.7 to
3.4 Tg yr−1, is close to the prior estimate (which includes wetland
fluxes from the land surface model, LPX-Bern) and to other independent
inversion estimates. However, our estimate for Alberta, of 5.0 to 5.8 Tg yr−1, is significantly higher than the prior (which also includes
anthropogenic sources from the EDGAR-4.2FT2010 inventory). Since the fluxes
from this region persist throughout the winter, this may signify that the
anthropogenic emissions are underestimated. For northern Eurasia, we find a
mean source of 52.2 to 55.5 Tg yr−1, with a strong contribution from
fluxes in the Western Siberian Lowlands (WSL) for which we estimate a source
of 19.3 to 19.9 Tg yr−1. Over the 9-year inversion period, we find
significant year-to-year variations in the fluxes, which in North America,
and specifically in the HBL, appear to be driven at least in part by soil
temperature, while in the WSL, the variability is more dependent on soil
moisture. Moreover, we find significant positive trends in the CH4
fluxes in North America of 0.38 to 0.57 Tg yr−2, and northern Eurasia of
0.76 to 1.09 Tg yr−2. In North America, this could be due to an increase
in soil temperature, while in North Eurasia, specifically Russia, the trend
is likely due, at least in part, to an increase in anthropogenic sources.
| Reference Key |
thompson2017atmosphericmethane
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;R. L. Thompson;M. Sasakawa;T. Machida;T. Aalto;D. Worthy;J. V. Lavric;C. Lund Myhre;A. Stohl |
| Journal | Journal of agricultural and food chemistry |
| Year | 2017 |
| DOI |
10.5194/acp-17-3553-2017
|
| URL | |
| Keywords |
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