previsão top-down ou bottom-up? impacto nos níveis de erro e de estoques de segurança top-down or bottom-up forecasting? impact on error and safety inventory levels

Clicks: 278
ID: 139692
2008
Free PDF
Article Quality & Performance Metrics
Overall Quality
Not rated
Combines reader engagement with the AI quality analysis. This article has not been analysed, so there is no overall score — reader engagement is measured and shown alongside.
AI Quality Assessment
Not analyzed
Readership in this journal
Steady

Ranked #15 of 60 articles by views in journal of pharmacy and pharmacognosy research

Most read Least read

Bar heights use a square-root scale.

Mint this article as an NFT
Not yet minted

Create a permanent, verifiable on-chain record of this article on the Scimatic Network. The NFT is held in your Journament account, and you can withdraw it to your own wallet at any time.

5 SUSD one-off · no wallet required
Sign in to mint
Abstract
A literatura de operações permanece sem concluir sobre a melhor abordagem em previsão de vendas: se da previsão dos dados agregados para os itens individuais (denominada abordagem top-down), ou se dos itens individuais para os dados agregados (denominada bottom-up). Nesse manuscrito são apresentados os resultados para a média e a variância dos erros de previsão com amortecimento exponencial nessas abordagens, considerando-se o caso em que a fração da série individual nas vendas agregados é estocástica. Por meio da geração de números aleatórios, são confirmados dois principais impactos na variância do erro de previsão, apresentados em pesquisas anteriores: efeitos portfólio e ancoragem. Os impactos também são avaliados em termos dos erros de previsão e do dimensionamento de estoques de segurança.
The operations literature remains inconclusive about the most adequate forecasting approach - top-down or bottom-up. This paper presents analytical results for mean values and variances of forecasting errors with exponential smoothing under these approaches. The share of the series in the total aggregate data is considered stochastic. Based on the generation of random numbers, two major impacts are confirmed on the variance of forecasting error, which were presented in previous papers, namely, portfolio and anchorage effects. The impacts are also evaluated in terms of forecasting bias and safety inventory levels.
Reference Key
wanke2008gestopreviso Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;Peter Wanke
Journal journal of pharmacy and pharmacognosy research
Year 2008
DOI
10.1590/S0104-530X2008000200003
URL
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0104-530X2008000200003
Keywords
exponential smoothing management engineering

Citations

No citations found. To add a citation, contact the admin at info@scimatic.org

Comments

No comments yet. Be the first to comment on this article.