previsão top-down ou bottom-up? impacto nos níveis de erro e de estoques de segurança top-down or bottom-up forecasting? impact on error and safety inventory levels
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ID: 139692
2008
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Abstract
A literatura de operações permanece sem concluir sobre a melhor abordagem em previsão de vendas: se da previsão dos dados agregados para os itens individuais (denominada abordagem top-down), ou se dos itens individuais para os dados agregados (denominada bottom-up). Nesse manuscrito são apresentados os resultados para a média e a variância dos erros de previsão com amortecimento exponencial nessas abordagens, considerando-se o caso em que a fração da série individual nas vendas agregados é estocástica. Por meio da geração de números aleatórios, são confirmados dois principais impactos na variância do erro de previsão, apresentados em pesquisas anteriores: efeitos portfólio e ancoragem. Os impactos também são avaliados em termos dos erros de previsão e do dimensionamento de estoques de segurança.
The operations literature remains inconclusive about the most adequate forecasting approach - top-down or bottom-up. This paper presents analytical results for mean values and variances of forecasting errors with exponential smoothing under these approaches. The share of the series in the total aggregate data is considered stochastic. Based on the generation of random numbers, two major impacts are confirmed on the variance of forecasting error, which were presented in previous papers, namely, portfolio and anchorage effects. The impacts are also evaluated in terms of forecasting bias and safety inventory levels.
The operations literature remains inconclusive about the most adequate forecasting approach - top-down or bottom-up. This paper presents analytical results for mean values and variances of forecasting errors with exponential smoothing under these approaches. The share of the series in the total aggregate data is considered stochastic. Based on the generation of random numbers, two major impacts are confirmed on the variance of forecasting error, which were presented in previous papers, namely, portfolio and anchorage effects. The impacts are also evaluated in terms of forecasting bias and safety inventory levels.
| Reference Key |
wanke2008gestopreviso
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| Authors | ;Peter Wanke |
| Journal | journal of pharmacy and pharmacognosy research |
| Year | 2008 |
| DOI |
10.1590/S0104-530X2008000200003
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