design of a regional climate modelling projection ensemble experiment – narclim
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2014
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Abstract
Including the impacts of climate change in decision making and planning
processes is a challenge facing many regional governments including the New
South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) governments in
Australia. NARCliM (NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling project) is a regional
climate modelling project that aims to provide a comprehensive and consistent
set of climate projections that can be used by all relevant government
departments when considering climate change. To maximise end user engagement
and ensure outputs are relevant to the planning process, a series of
stakeholder workshops were run to define key aspects of the model experiment
including spatial resolution, time slices, and output variables. As with all
such experiments, practical considerations limit the number of ensemble
members that can be simulated such that choices must be made concerning which
global climate models (GCMs) to downscale from, and which regional climate
models (RCMs) to downscale with. Here a methodology for making these choices
is proposed that aims to sample the uncertainty in both GCM and RCM
ensembles, as well as spanning the range of future climate projections
present in the GCM ensemble. The RCM selection process uses performance
evaluation metrics to eliminate poor performing models from consideration,
followed by explicit consideration of model independence in order to retain
as much information as possible in a small model subset. In addition to these
two steps the GCM selection process also considers the future change in
temperature and precipitation projected by each GCM. The final GCM selection
is based on a subjective consideration of the GCM independence and future
change. The created ensemble provides a more robust view of future regional
climate changes. Future research is required to determine objective criteria
that could replace the subjective aspects of the selection process.
| Reference Key |
evans2014geoscientificdesign
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;J. P. Evans;F. Ji;C. Lee;P. Smith;D. Argüeso;L. Fita |
| Journal | international journal of quantum chemistry |
| Year | 2014 |
| DOI |
10.5194/gmd-7-621-2014
|
| URL | |
| Keywords |
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