the sustainability of serbia's external position: the impact of fiscal adjustment and external shocks

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ID: 136407
2015
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Abstract
This paper studies the impact of fiscal policy and external shocks on the sustainability of Serbia’s external position. The key determinants of Serbia's current account balance are identified using model averaging techniques and are compared with estimates obtained for other small open economies (Poland, Georgia, Morocco, Ukraine, and Estonia). The paper uses estimated influences of macrovariables on the current account balance to generate a rich set of possible outcomes for the external position of the country. The results suggest the importance of fiscal policy for the reduction of external imbalances in all countries in our sample. In particular, credible and sustained fiscal adjustment can reduce current account deficit and stabilize Serbia’s external position close to its current level over the medium term. The analysis also warns that lack of success in fiscal consolidation coupled with external shocks may easily push the external position onto an unsustainable path.
Reference Key
emir2015ekonomskithe Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;Zildžović Emir
Journal Aesthetic plastic surgery
Year 2015
DOI
10.2298/EKA1504031Z
URL
http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0013-3264/2015/0013-32641504031Z.pdf
Keywords
fiscal policy Planning Development model averaging external shockseconomic growth

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