current state and future prospective of repowering wind turbines: an economic analysis

For over two decades, the construction of wind turbines in Germany has been supported by guaranteed feed-in tariffs determined by the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), the primary goal of which is climate protection, in addition to reducing the country’s dependence on the import of (finitely available) fossil fuels. After China and the United States, Germany ranks third worldwide in the production of wind energy. The number of onshore wind turbines in Germany has risen to approximately 30,000 plants, of which approximately 10,000 wind turbines will fall out of the guaranteed EEG funding window in the next one to two years. There are basically two alternatives for these wind turbines: either continuing operations, with the sale of electricity at relatively low and fluctuating electricity stock prices, or repowering, which opens access to the fixed feed-in tariffs for another 20 years. However, repowering has the disadvantages that an approval process must be carried out and the investor must participate in a tender. There is no guarantee for the granting of a building permit; economically feasible operations also depend on the fact that one can win a contract without the submitted price being set too low. This area of tension is illustrated by a wind farm in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and analysed economically. The investment in new, more efficient, and larger wind turbines currently promises a high return. The profitability of the investment in wind turbines is determined using the net present value (NPV) method. In addition, a risk analysis is carried out using stochastic simulation. As a result, the feed-in tariff contributes to over 95% of the variance in the net present value (NPV).