scoping the impact of changes in population age-structure on the future burden of foodborne disease in the netherlands, 2020–2060

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ID: 131132
2013
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Resumo
A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella), 51 (Campylobacter), 1.1 (hepatitis A virus) and 2.1 (Toxoplasma). For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates.
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havelaar2013internationalscoping Use esta chave para citacao automatica no manuscrito ao usar SciMatic Gerenciador de Manuscritos ou Gerenciador de Teses
Autores ;Arie H. Havelaar;Martijn Bouwknegt;Wilfrid van Pelt
Periodico archives of biochemistry and biophysics
Ano 2013
DOI
10.3390/ijerph10072888
URL
http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/10/7/2888
Palavras-chave
mortality incidence toxoplasma gondii ageing listeria monocytogenes the netherlands future

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