UN ENFOQUE PROSPECTIVO PARA EL DISEÑO DE ESTRATEGIAS

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ID: 108779
2020
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Abstract
En la actualidad, la anticipación mediante la reflexión colectiva y la actuación proactiva para la transformación de la realidad, se imponen a causa de la aceleración del cambio tecnológico, económico y social, lo que requiere una visión a largo plazo. Los cambios generan incertidumbre y la prospectiva permite reducirla; ayuda a explicar los problemas complejos y a tomar decisiones que van en el sentido del futuro deseado. El objetivo del artículo es caracterizar la prospectiva y mostrar el camino a seguir para incorporar el enfoque prospectivo al diseño de estrategias; lo que se demuestra e ilustra mediante un caso de estudio sobre “El desarrollo de las exportaciones y su efecto en la balanza de pagos en interés de la seguridad financiera externa de Cuba”. Se empleó el método de los escenarios de la prospectiva. Palabras clave: prospectiva, escenario, variable, actor, estrategia Summary At present, the anticipation through collective reflection and proactive action for the transformation of reality are imposed because of the acceleration of technological, economic and social change, which requires a long-term vision. The changes generate uncertainty and the prospective allows to reduce it; It helps explain complex problems and make decisions that go in the direction of the desired future. The objective of the article is to characterize the prospective and show the way forward to incorporate the prospective approach to strategy design; This is demonstrated and illustrated by a case study on the development of exports and their effect on the balance of payments in the interest of Cuba's external financial security. The prospective scenarios method was used.Keywords: prospective, scenario, variable, actor, strategy
Reference Key
Andreu2020revistaUN Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Lydia María Garrigó Andreu;Marta Sabina Wilson González;Martín Irián Barrios Rivera;
Journal Revista Cubana de Administración Pública y Empresarial
Year 2020
DOI
102
URL
https://apye.esceg.cu/index.php/apye/article/view/102
Keywords
prospectiva escenario variable actor estrategia Education Technology efficiency pharmacy learning engagement teaching microlearning preceptor development

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