The aggravation of urban air quality deterioration due to urbanization, transportation and economic development - Panel models with marginal effect analyses across China.

Abstract

In this paper, panel data models are established to examine the impacts of urban construction, transport facilities, and economic development on the urban air quality. Combined with data from different tiers of Chinese cities for two time series, 2010 and 2015, the variable-intercept model (VIM) is used to determine the parameters and significance of each independent variable. The marginal effects of different categories of independent variables (urbanization, transportation and economy) on the urban air quality are also studied with regard to the results of different VIMs. The results show that transportation factors (such as annual passenger trips, bus numbers and taxi numbers) have the most significant effects on the air quality for all the Chinese cities. Moreover, urbanized area and annual gross value of industrial output also have prominent impacts on the air quality across China. In addition, the marginal effects of the air quality index obtained via VIMs with classified local variables reflect that the influences of urbanization, transportation and economy on urban air quality are substantially different among different tiers of cities. Therefore, based on the findings, we propose measures to improve air quality for different tiers of cities, such as rational use of space resources, optimizing transport modes, and encouraging carpooling.