photovoltaics (pv) system energy forecast on the basis of the local weather forecast: problems, uncertainties and solutions

Abstract

When integrating a photovoltaic system into a smart zero-energy or energy-plus building, or just to lower the electricity bill by rising the share of the self-consumption in a private house, it is very important to have a photovoltaic power energy forecast for the next day(s). While the commercially available forecasting services might not meet the household prosumers interests due to the price or complexity we have developed a forecasting methodology that is based on the common weather forecast. Since the forecasted meteorological data does not include the solar irradiance information, but only the weather condition, the uncertainty of the results is relatively high. However, in the presented approach, irradiance is calculated from discrete weather conditions and with correlation of forecasted meteorological data, an RMS error of 65%, and a R2 correlation factor of 0.85 is feasible.