Future projections of record-breaking sea surface temperature and cyanobacteria bloom events in the Baltic Sea.
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ID: 45273
2019
Aiming to inform both marine management and the public, coupled environmental-climate scenario simulations for the future Baltic Sea are analyzed. The projections are performed under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (medium and high-end) and three nutrient load scenarios spanning the range of plausible socio-economic pathways. Assuming an optimistic scenario with perfect implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), the projections suggest that the achievement of Good Environmental Status will take at least a few more decades. However, for the perception of the attractiveness of beach recreational sites, extreme events such as tropical nights, record-breaking sea surface temperature (SST), and cyanobacteria blooms may be more important than mean ecosystem indicators. Our projections suggest that the incidence of record-breaking summer SSTs will increase significantly. Under the BSAP, record-breaking cyanobacteria blooms will no longer occur in the future, but may reappear at the end of the century in a business-as-usual nutrient load scenario.
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meier2019futureambio
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| Authors | Meier, H E Markus;Dieterich, Christian;Eilola, Kari;Gröger, Matthias;Höglund, Anders;Radtke, Hagen;Saraiva, Sofia;Wåhlström, Iréne; |
| Journal | ambio |
| Year | 2019 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s13280-019-01235-5 |
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