Long-term evolution experiments fully reveal the potential for thermal adaptation.

Abstract

Evolutionary responses may be crucial in allowing organisms to cope with prolonged effects of climate change. However, a clear understanding of the dynamics of adaptation to warming environments is still lacking. Addressing how reproductive success evolves in such deteriorating environments is extremely relevant, as this trait is constrained at temperatures below critical thermal limits. Experimental evolution under a warming environment can elucidate the potential of populations to respond to rapid environmental changes. The few studies following such framework lack analysis of long-term response. We here focus on the long-term thermal evolution of two Drosophila subobscura populations, from different European latitudes, under warming temperatures. We tested reproductive success of these populations in the ancestral (control) and warming environment after ∼50 generations of thermal evolution. We found a general adaptive response to warming temperatures in the long term, since populations evolving in the warming environment showed increased performance in that environment relative to the respective control populations. On the other hand, no clear response was observed in the ancestral environment. Coupled with data from previous generations, we highlight a slow pace of adaptive response and differences in that response between populations of distinct histories. These findings demonstrate the need of long-term evolution experiments to fully reveal the potential for thermal adaptation. It also highlights that the scrutiny of different populations is needed as a measure of variation in evolutionary responses within a species. Accounting for these sources of variation - both temporal and spatial - will allow for more robust assessments of climate change evolutionary responses.