regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change
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ID: 236444
2018
Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential
impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus
of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of
different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset
of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional
changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global
temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available
emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified
pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships
on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated
uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full
distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern
high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while
subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range
of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice
play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the
uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about
half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the
implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below
(i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show
that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean
response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme
changes in regional water availability.
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greve2018earthregional
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Authors | ;P. Greve;P. Greve;L. Gudmundsson;S. I. Seneviratne |
Journal | itinéraires |
Year | 2018 |
DOI | 10.5194/esd-9-227-2018 |
URL | |
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