Competition of noise and collectivity in global cryptocurrency trading: Route to a self-contained market.

Abstract

Cross correlations in fluctuations of the daily exchange rates within the basket of the 100 highest-capitalization cryptocurrencies over the period October 1, 2015-March 31, 2019 are studied. The corresponding dynamics predominantly involve one leading eigenvalue of the correlation matrix, while the others largely coincide with those of Wishart random matrices. However, the magnitude of the principal eigenvalue, and thus the degree of collectivity, strongly depends on which cryptocurrency is used as a base. It is largest when the base is the most peripheral cryptocurrency; when more significant ones are taken into consideration, its magnitude systematically decreases, nevertheless preserving a sizable gap with respect to the random bulk, which in turn indicates that the organization of correlations becomes more heterogeneous. This finding provides a criterion for recognizing which currencies or cryptocurrencies play a dominant role in the global cryptomarket. The present study shows that over the period under consideration, the Bitcoin (BTC) predominates, hallmarking exchange rate dynamics at least as influential as the U.S. dollar (USD). Even more, the BTC started dominating around the year 2017, while other cryptocurrencies, such as the Ethereum and even Ripple, assumed similar trends. At the same time, the USD, an original value determinant for the cryptocurrency market, became increasingly disconnected, and its related characteristics eventually started approaching those of a fictitious currency. These results are strong indicators of incipient independence of the global cryptocurrency market, delineating a self-contained trade resembling the Forex.